The Monofactorial Model for Recurrence Risks with Generalized Penetrance

Recurrence risks are derived explicitly in terms of gene frequencies and penetrance coefficients for the general case in which all genotypes have incomplete penetrance. Maximum likelihood estimation of recurrence risks is achieved through the use of the semi-symmetric intraclass contingency table. The resulting formulas and estimation procedure can be useful for the analysis of population and family data, and in genetic counselling.     

Quantification of bird migration by radar – a detection probability problem

Besides the scientific interest in the quantification of bird migration, there is an increasing need to quantify bird movements for the assessment of bird collision risk with artificial structures. In many environmental impact studies, the radar method is used in an inappropriate manner. The processing of echoes consists often of counting blips within defined screen fields, and the surveyed volume is estimated without reference to the detection probabilities of different 'target sizes' (radar cross-sections). The aim of this paper is to present a procedure to quantify bird migration reliably using radar by stating the theoretical requirements of every single step of this procedure and presenting methodological solutions using our own radar data from extensive field studies. Our methodological solutions can be applied to various radar systems, including widely used ship radar. The procedure presented involves discriminating the echoes of birds and insects and estimating the different detection probabilities of differently 'sized' birds (radar cross-sections). By ignoring the different detection probabilities, density estimations may be wrong by as much as 400%. We fear that quantification of bird migration and predicted bird numbers affected by collisions with artificial structures are in many cases based on unreliable estimates.     

A Preliminary Human Health Risk Assessment of Organochlorine Pesticide Residues Associated with Aquatic Organisms from the Rangsit Agricultural Area,Central Thailand

Food consumption is one of the main routes of human exposure to organochlorine pesticide residues (OCPRs). To assess the potential health risks associated with OCPRs contaminants due to freshwater organism consumption, a number of vegetables, prawn, snail, and fish were collected from Khlong 7 (canal), Rangsit agricultural area, Pathum-Thani Province, Thailand. The samples were extracted using a multiresidue extraction method and then analyzed by gas chromatography with microelectron capture detector (μ -ECD). The results show that low concentrations of OCPRs were detected in parts per billion (ppb) levels. Based on a plausible worst-case scenario, the local population could be at risk for cancer due to consumption of fish contaminated by α -, β -HCH, heptachlor, heptachlor epoxide, aldrin, dieldrin, DDD, DDE, and DDT. Likewise, individuals may be at risk from consumption of Lanchester's freshwater prawn Macrobrachium lanchesteri, freshwater snail Filopaludina mertensi, swamp morning-glory Ipomomea aquatica, neptunia Neptunia oleracea, and water lily Nymphaea lotus because these species all contained elevated concentrations of α -, β -HCH, heptachlor, heptachlor epoxide, aldrin, and dieldrin.     

Avian life-history determinants of local extinction risk in a hyper-fragmented neotropical forest landscape

The fact that species vary in their vulnerability to extinction is well documented, but the reasons for these differences remain poorly understood. Why should some species/families/guilds decline rapidly with increasing anthropogenic disturbance, while others either tolerate or proliferate in disturbed habitats? We investigated the bird species composition in 31 primary forest patches of varying size in a region of the Amazonian 'Arc of Deforestation' and assessed which species life-history traits predisposed individual species to extinction. Medium-sized non-flocking canopy frugivores/ominvores of low primary forest dependence were least likely to go extinct in small patches, while small-bodied flock-following primary-forest-dependent terrestrial insectivores were most fragmentation sensitive. We found highly idiosyncratic relationships between the minimum size of forest patches occupied by different species and their territory size requirements estimated based on other Amazonian studies. This suggests that avian assemblages in forest fragments primarily comprise species that either have good dispersal abilities or are highly tolerant to the non-forest matrix, rather than those whose minimum spatial requirements can be met by the size of available forest fragments.     

Geochemical baseline establishment and ecological risk evaluation of heavy metals in greenhouse soils from Dongtai,China

Currently, heavy metal (HM) contamination in greenhouse soils is a significant concern due to the rapid expansion of greenhouse agriculture. However, it is difficult to accurately assess HM pollution in greenhouse soils in China due to the lack of local geochemical baseline concentrations (GBCs) or corresponding background values. In the present study, the GBCs of HMs in Dongtai, a representative greenhouse area of China, were established from subsoils using cumulative frequency distribution (CFD) curves. The pollution levels of HMs and potential ecological risks were investigated using different quantitative indices, such as geo-accumulation index (I_geo), pollution index (PI), pollution load index (PLI) and ecological risk index (RI), based on these regional GBCs. The total concentrations of six metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn) in surface soils were determined and shown to be lower than the concentrations reported in other greenhouse regions of China. The GBCs of Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn were 0.059–0.092, 39.20–54.50, 12.52–15.57, 20.63–23.26, 13.43–16.62 and 43.02–52.65 mg kg⁻¹, respectively. Based on this baseline criterion, Cd, Pb and Zn accumulated in the surface soils because they were present at concentrations higher than their baseline values. The soils were moderately polluted by Cd according to the I_geo values, and the PI results indicated that moderate Cd contamination was present in this area. The large variation of I_geo value of Cd revealed that Cd in this area was likely influenced by agricultural activities. The PLI showed that most of the study area was moderately polluted. However, an analysis of the RI showed that the investigated HMs had low ecological risks. Correlation analysis and principle component analysis suggested that the Cd, Pb and Zn in the greenhouse soils mainly originated from anthropogenic sources (agricultural activities, atmospheric deposition etc.), while Cr, Cu, and Ni originated from natural sources. The findings of this study illustrated the necessity of GBC establishment at the local scale to facilitate more accurate HM evaluation of greenhouse soils. It is advisable to pay more attention to Cd, which could cause environmental problems in the greenhouse system.     

Health risk assessment via consumption of Pb and Cd contaminated vegetables collected from fresh markets in the lower north of Thailand

This study aimed to investigate the Pb and Cd contamination and health risk assessment for population via consumption of vegetables sold in fresh markets around the lower north of Thailand. The concentrations of Pb and Cd in various vegetables such as root/tuber, stem, inflorescence, fruit, and leaf vegetables were analyzed using an atomic absorption spec-trophotometer. Human health risks of these metals in vegetables were assessed based on target hazard quotient (THQ). The results indicated that more than 80% of the Pb and Cd in almost all vegetable samples exceeded the maximum allowable concentration by National Food Institute criteria with an average range of 0.96–3.39 and 0.48–1.40 mg/kg, respectively. The estimated daily intakes (EDI) of Pb and Cd via dietary consumption of vegetables were between 0.001–0.010 and 0.002–0.008 mg/kg/d, respectively. All EDIs of Pb contaminated vegetables were higher than the reference dose recommended by the USEPA except for leaf edible vegetables, while all EDIs of Cd contaminated vegetables were higher than the reference dose recommended by the USEPA. THQ indicated that the consumption of Pb contaminated root/tuber, stem, inflorescence, and fruit edible vegetables and Cd contaminated leaf vegetable for the local population in the lower north of Thailand could be a severe health risk problem.     

Elevated serum lactate in emergency department patients predicts hospital admission unrelated to diagnosis – but not more

Purpose: The value of lactate as a screening biomarker in the emergency department is debated. We analysed all unselected patients in the emergency department with serum lactate measured with regard to different outcome parameters.

Material and Methods: In a retrospective single centre study, we analysed all digitalized patient data of a two-week period of all patients ≥18 where a serum lactate was measured. The lactate levels as well as demographic and other laboratory data were correlated in a logistic regression analysis, univariable as well as multivariable, with the outcome parameters.

Results: A total of 1157 patients contacted the emergency department of which 587 were included. The average lactate level was 2,08?mmol/l (SD ±1.51, median 1.73). A total of 313 patients were admitted to hospital, 274 treated as outpatients. Their median lactate levels were 2.0?mmol/l (min/max 0.6–18?mmol/l) and 1.5?mmol/l (min/max 0.5–7.4?mmol/l), respectively. Univariable regression analysis for hospital admission showed an odds ratio of 1756 (p?p?=?0.004). There was no correlation with admission to ICU, length of stay or a relation to a certain diagnostic group.

Conclusions: Screening lactate levels in unselected emergency department patients do not have a clinical relevance yet.     

Apolipoprotein A-V is a potential target for treating coronary artery disease: evidence from genetic and metabolomic analyses

Triglyceride (TG)-lowering LPL variants in combination with genetic LDL-C-lowering variants are associated with reduced risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). Genetic variation in the APOA5 gene encoding apolipoprotein A-V also strongly affects TG levels, but the potential clinical impact and underlying mechanisms are yet to be resolved. Here, we aimed to study the effects of APOA5 genetic variation on CAD risk and plasma lipoproteins through factorial genetic association analyses. Using data from 309,780 European-ancestry participants from the UK Biobank, we evaluated the effects of lower TG levels as a result of genetic variation in APOA5 and/or LPL on CAD risk with or without a background of reduced LDL-C. Next, we compared lower TG levels via APOA5 and LPL variation with over 100 lipoprotein measurements in a combined sample from the Netherlands Epidemiology of Obesity study (N = 4,838) and the Oxford Biobank (N = 6,999). We found that lower TG levels due to combined APOA5 and LPL variation and genetically-influenced lower LDL-C levels afforded the largest reduction in CAD risk (odds ratio: 0.78 (0.73–0.82)). Compared to patients with genetically-influenced lower TG via LPL, genetically-influenced lower TG via APOA5 had similar and independent, but notably larger, effects on the lipoprotein profile. Our results suggest that lower TG levels as a result of APOA5 variation have strong beneficial effects on CAD risk and the lipoprotein profile, which suggest apo A-V may be a potential novel therapeutic target for CAD prevention.     

Confidence Limits for the Ratio of Two Binomial Proportions Based on Likelihood Scores: Non-Iterative Method

The interval estimation of the ratio of two binomial proportions based on the score statistic is superior over other methods. Iterative algorithms for calculating the approximate confidence interval have been provided by, e.g., KOOPMAN (1984, Biometrics 40:513–517) and GART and NAM (1988a, Biometrics 44:323–338). This note presents the analytical solutions for upper and lower confidence limits in a closed form and gives examples for numerical illustration. The non-iterative method is generally more desirable than the iterative method.